Vocational Education as a Release Valve

Why a better image of vocational education can help release tension in society.

In the blog of Peter Turchin, a professor at Oxford, I encountered the compelling concept of "Elite Overproduction." Turchin proposes that our society manufactures an excess of individuals capable of joining the elite—those competing for limited power and resources within the upper echelons. Or in a simple metaphor: Imagine too many people vying for too few chairs in a hall.

Short: Everyone want’s to get in, no one volunteers to get out.

This situation leads to confrontations among the well-educated, who articulate their grievances and demand their perceived rightful places. This demand stems from an expectation to at least match the living standards of one's upbringing. When this seems unachievable, tensions rise.

Despite the relative advantages of living in a typical Western European city compared to historical or less fortunate contemporary global settings, the frustration persists when anticipated achievements. (like securing a prestigious job, owning a Tesla, or buying a house) remain out of reach.

This whole frustrating experience is not helped by an increasingly uncertain, highly dynamic world; termed a VUCA world, characterized by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. This unpredictable environment, combined with an aging, increasingly educated population facing challenges in healthcare, housing, and employment, demands resilience. And that is not what was promised when most of us where young and got our high grades and university degrees instead of learning a trade.

Dutch essayist Roxanne van Iperen, in her essay "Eigen welzijn eerst," (‘my own wellbeing first) references Barbara Eichenreich's "fear of falling" theory, suggesting this fear, caused by the uncertainty of the times, motivates a political shift to the right among the middle class. The hall is overcrowding, no one wants to get out, but things are not as pleasant as expected. Not our fault of course, it's ‘the other trying to get in’.

We need a release valve for the overcrowded hall with all these others still claiming their spot. And I don't blame them; that's where you are taught the price is. The question is however if that story still holds. I don't think so.

A potential solution might lie in the re-evaluation of the high degrees we are all vying for. Why not increase focus on vocational education instead of getting everyone and their mother up to university degrees.

This not only addresses the needs of our changing societies (with things like the energy transition, healthcare, the lack of skilled workers) but also serves as a counterbalance to the overproduction of elite candidates.

This shift reflects Niall Ferguson's observation in his book "The Square and the Tower," where he notes that societies oscillate between hierarchical and networked governance; described by Ferugson as ‘the tower’ and ‘the square’.

This is not the same as closing the doors to the hall and saying; ‘you stay there while we stay here with all the good stuff’. This is building a new hall, or better; a square that fits more people and is less hard to get into. Instead of the hall. People will stay, but over time its appeal will fade and only old, melancholic people will remain, holding on to days lone gone, like the people in the movie La Grande Belleza.

As we possibly transition as a society from the 'Tower' to the 'Square,' a new narrative ; one that values vocational skills as highly, if not more, than a higher education diploma.

This counter-narrative, rooted in the grassroots of a continuously developing and changing society, challenges the traditional views on success and what constitutes ‘elitism’.

Thus, it's time to move from the confines of an overcrowded ivory tower to the vibrancy of the public square, reshaping our narrative on career paths and the future of education.